Ports and Geopolitics Driving Container Fleet Renewal

This week, container ship ordering news was dominated by the order by Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) for eight 13,400 TEU container ships.

In a newly released report, the International Federation of Freight Forwarders Associations (FIATA) notes that the container fleet is aging. As of August 2025, the average fleet age of the top 10 shipping lines is relatively mature at around 13 years old, although there is variation amongst the different shipping companies. Evergreen and HMM currently operate the youngest fleet with an average age of nine years, whilst MSC (16 years) and Maersk (14 years) show a heavier reliance on older vessels.

“This suggests that there will soon be a significant pool of ships nearing the end of their competitive lifespan. As a result, once the Red Sea situation eases, it is unlikely that all this capacity will translate into an increase in available capacity.”

This is confirmed by data on scrappage between 2023 and 2025. Scrapping has been minimal in recent years, accounting for just 0.38% of the fleet in 2023, and only 0.02% in 2025 year to date. “This suggests that older, less efficient vessels are currently in use, given the extra demand created by diversion routes. Once the Red Sea situation stabilizes and diversion requirements diminish, it is likely that many of these vessels may no longer be needed or commercially viable.”

An end to the Red Sea situation is in sight, but not certain. This week, Maersk said it had no specific timeline for when it would resume sailings through the Red Sea for its Gemini network with Germany's Hapag-Lloyd.

Fleet renewal prospects vary in the container feeder market. While there have been some orders – Intermodal reports Hapag-Lloyd has placed orders for a series of up to 24 feeders – MSI predicts a short fall in the geared container fleet.

“While the containership orderbook has surged to over 33% of the total fleet, next to none of these vessels are geared ships. This could become a problem in the years to come as the geared fleet ages - 37% of geared containerships are over 20 Yrs old.”

The number of ports only served by geared container ships is declining, but the decline may be slowing, says MSI, and the total number of calls at geared-only ports is stable. Total calls at geared-only ports rose by 9% yoy in 2024 and the 2025 figure is expected to be similar.

The fall in geared-only ports is in large part down to a fall in the number of geared-only ports in Africa as terminals modernize. However, the Pacific Islands and South East Asia have seen no change in the number of geared-only ports since 2022, while the number of such ports in Europe rose by one over this period.

Many of these ports, which include Arctic and Polynesian ports, are likely to be too remote to justify major upgrades anytime soon. This means that a further reduction in the number of geared-only ports may be harder to come by and will provide space for renewed ordering of geared container ships to replace the current fleet, or loss of market share to multipurpose vessels.